tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post184074759329496574..comments2023-03-17T05:50:45.426-07:00Comments on Eppur Si Muove !: The MRCA Story And What It Means For IndiaRahul Mhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13591095527725179695noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post-7618784794679365052015-10-14T03:18:09.210-07:002015-10-14T03:18:09.210-07:00Why is this article not the basis for the MMRCA ar...Why is this article not the basis for the MMRCA article being compiled for Swarajya? :-) <br />ex-MartenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post-76975325690727291632012-02-12T10:01:26.953-08:002012-02-12T10:01:26.953-08:00thanks boss.thanks boss.Rahul Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13591095527725179695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post-2983673177270603702012-02-09T21:56:50.924-08:002012-02-09T21:56:50.924-08:00Excellent article. You should post moe often.Excellent article. You should post moe often.jamwalhttp://jjamwal.innoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post-90465699553421959552012-02-09T19:15:57.098-08:002012-02-09T19:15:57.098-08:00AA, some very interesting points.
one nitpick tho...AA, some very interesting points.<br /><br />one nitpick though,<br /><br />18% increase to 22 year high, not "18% to 22% share price movement " which doesn't make sense if you think about it !<br /><br />anyway, my contention is not that it will be a windfall for Dassault and frankly I have no brief to worry about it.<br />We are spending a huge amount of money no matter what, even accounting for offsets this is money that is taken away from more productive uses like health, education and infrastructure.<br /><br />that is unsustainable and unaffordable in the long run. we have a burgeoning population and the window of opportunity is closing.<br />beyond a point we can't afford to squander our resources by splurging on foreign maal.<br /><br />the situation becomes amply clear when you compare with the prices for desi projects, as ajai shukla did in his article.<br /><br />coming to tech gain, it all depends on how the approval process goes through. if handled well it would mean a quantum jump in our capabilities, if not...<br />well, you know.<br />at the moment it's all a little grey.Rahul Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13591095527725179695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post-21389933339911065932012-02-09T18:34:23.786-08:002012-02-09T18:34:23.786-08:00@ Dad, I guess first batch of IAF pilots would be ...@ Dad, I guess first batch of IAF pilots would be trained in France.Rahul Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13591095527725179695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post-39602002758867664862012-02-09T18:33:12.291-08:002012-02-09T18:33:12.291-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.Rahul Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13591095527725179695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post-23621325050006305572012-02-07T21:02:23.661-08:002012-02-07T21:02:23.661-08:00enough chai-biskoot now get those god damned airfr...enough chai-biskoot now get those god damned airframes quick !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post-13491325619102580202012-02-07T20:37:05.262-08:002012-02-07T20:37:05.262-08:00I hope the MMRCA contest comes to its logical conc...I hope the MMRCA contest comes to its logical conclusion soon and at least two squadron strengths of new build Rafales are quickly inducted to help IAF shore up its sagging numbers. These can be replaced with later versions ala the Su-30K vs. Su-30MKI as the production lines start humming. Simply put, this was the most logical decision - the French have been the most consistent supporters of Indian strategic objectives (apart from the former USSR/Russia) through thick and thin as well as a source of fairly state-of-the-art avionics and weapons packages. The Typhoon, while a great Air Dominance fighter, has its own set of baggages - subject to tantrums from 4 different European nations, and a yet to be proven A2G capability.Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05578347006728118697noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6828380218127457731.post-84337844916434360182012-02-07T17:54:13.653-08:002012-02-07T17:54:13.653-08:00Re the 18% to 22% share price movement of Dassault...Re the 18% to 22% share price movement of Dassault Aviation, is a rise from €6.00 pre-contract levels to €6.95. WRT 10.13 million shares, this equates to an overall market gain for Dassault of €960 million or $1.27 billion. And taking all other French gains, the overall profit is say 10-12% of MMRCA contract worth circa $16-20 billion. The implied gains to the supplier are quite modest. <br /><br />Interestingly, Rafale deal had been fully priced in as early as April 2011 or at time for downselect. In the near future, shares ought to reflect the expectations of bigger contract but offset obligations may affect it in a positive or negative way. You would hope a JV is a win-win for both parties.<br /><br />Now to your poser. To what extent does it make sense for India's indigenous development? Firstly, contracts pays for hard physical delivery of some fighter planes, and import of materials, parts, assemblies, technical consultancy for remaining planes. <br /><br />India gains 50% of MMRCA contract in direct offsets (ie is returned back to it). There are modest profits to be made (depending on efficiencies). Basically there are GOI grants to its nominated entities, who are probably involved in developing indigenous products like HAL/ DRDO or SME partners of same.<br /><br />If these profits are insufficient (perhaps DPSU are inefficient?), then there is a way to speed up matters, reduce costs of development, and receive assistance in commecial explotation of products. ie. What if it possible to reduce the time/cost of Teja Mk 2 development or get full certification of Dhruv? Early availability means higher production and greater self-sufficiency. Full certification means exploitation of the large civilian and export markets.<br /><br />The delivery of this benefit is through approved offsets; the resulting TOT or JV is set up to generate future business or cost savings. The Indian manufacturer in JV will still take a small profit margin (say 10%) but lower procurement costs for GOI may save say 30%. eg. Engines for 200 AMCA cost $3.5- 4.0 billion abroad --> $0.4+ billion in DPSU profit plus $1000-$1200 billion reduction in procurement ==> overall gain to DPSU+ GOI of $1500 or 8-10% of MMRCA!!! Moreover, this GOI investment (paid as part of MMRCA contract value)is highly targetted to development in key areas.<br /><br />You may argue that PSUs and SMEs are incapable of exploiting the offsets etc. If true, than imagine what will happen to all the billions GOI would have spent instead on direct Indigenous development? Reaction will be something like, "DRDO, HAL et al can go to HELL for all the good they do. They are a fail either way".AAnoreply@blogger.com